Global Capital Liquidity Dynamics

Liquidity has returned decisively to commercial real estate capital markets. Transactions activity is steadily improving following more than a year of exceptional credit market strength. JLL's proprietary market indices reveal growing investor conviction and unprecedented lender competition, signaling a market where capital depth is overcoming macro headwinds and where credit and investment sales markets are achieving stronger alignment.

• Credit markets fueling transactions velocity: Credit recovery led by months—investment sales are now following. Bid Intensity Index has climbed well above year-ago levels, with conviction increasingly evident in larger transaction sizes.

• Investor conviction defies macro uncertainty: June 2026 delivered the sharpest monthly Bid Intensity Index improvement in twelve months. July 2026 recorded the second-highest unique bidder count since index inception. Capital is deploying decisively.​

• Lenders still competing to place capital: The Credit Intensity Index remains materially elevated. Lenders are competing more aggressively than buyers to deploy capital, creating borrower-favorable conditions.

• Divergence between credit and investment sales markets eases: The divergence between Bid Intensity Index and Credit Intensity Index peaked in May 2026 and has compressed steadily since, indicating stronger alignment between financing availability and transaction execution.​

• Signals to watch in the months ahead: The weight of active bidders continues to rise notably, yet the recent runup in bond yields, especially in the U.S., continues to weigh on the bid-ask spread. The extent to which the depth of capital outweighs continued pressure on borrowing costs will impact near-term movements in the indices.​

• Will the weight of capital continue to outweigh elevated bond yields to sustain transaction momentum?

• How will sector-specific cap rate adjustments evolve as investors recalibrate their underwriting?

• Will the credit and investment sales market alignment deepen, or will yield volatility create new divergences?

Current market conditions offer a rare combination: deep liquidity, competitive financing, and motivated counterparties. JLL's Bid and Credit Intensity Indices indicate this opportunity window will persist through year-end—however, continued macro pressures mean decisiveness will increasingly differentiate successful execution from missed opportunities.